Best Odds – Guaranteed Profit

Horse racing remains the staple diet of UK bookmakers. It’s been that way since 1961, the year betting shops became legal and a familiar feature on the British High Street.

The changes in the bookmaking industry since have been monumental with the Internet proving to be the catalyst which has sped up the process of change immeasurably during the past 15 years.

Fundamentally bookmakers still take bets on the outcome of horseraces and pay out winners at a pre-arranged fixed price or an official starting price (SP). But there is more racing than ever, with the introduction of ‘all-weather’ racing meaning flat horses can race throughout the winter and under floodlights. Simple supply and demand stuff.

Additionally the major races from Australia, Hong Kong, UAE and America are also priced-up by the major bookmaking brands: William Hill, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Bet365, Coral, BetVictor to name but a few.

Throughout the sixties, seventies and eighties punters options amounted to win bets, each-way bets and accumulative bets: Doubles, trebles, 4-folds etc and exotics such as a Yankee, a bet which is actually 11 bets requiring four selections and consists of six doubles, four trebles and a 4-fold accumulator.

But once betting exchange Betfair hit cyberspace the traditional bookmakers knew they had to up their game, offer competitive prices and considerably more markets.

Place only, winning distance and match-bets have all now found their way onto the daily menu, but the chargrilled fillet steak with fries and béarnaise sauce is the introduction of ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’.

Definition: Take a price on your selection, say 3/1, at any time prior to the race and you are guaranteed that return regardless of the fact that a flood of late money could see it return as an even-money favourite.

There is nothing new with this scenario but now, should that horse drift out in price to a hypothetical starting price of 11/2 these are the odds you will be paid out at. It’s a supreme win/win situation and a massive advantage especially given the tiny margins you can back to in this modern era if shopping around.

So being they type of gambler that has spent thirty years finding all the angles only to discover I had neither the patience or self-control to apply them, I set about seeking ways to make this massive concession profitable.

It was soon abundantly clear just how this could be manipulated into a money maker.

Rule 1:

Identify small field races (4-8 runners)

Rule 2:

Find any race within the above parameters which, by referencing at an odds-comparison site such as oddschecker.com, features a best over-round of four percent or less.

Rule 3:

Back every horse in any race (which satisfies rules 1 & 2) at the best possible price to win 1,000 units.

….If the race features a 103 percent over-round then this exercise will cost 1,030 units.

Rule 4:

Sit back safe in the knowledge that whatever the outcome of the race the most you can/will lose is 30 units. Conversely, the upside could be massive if/when the race winner returns at a price greater than that you took.

…just consider placing 250 points on a 3/1 selection that actually returns at 5/1. The net result is a 1,500-point return and a 470 point profit. An amazing proposition considering you maximum downside is/was just 30 points.

What a system, what a beautiful and simplistic way to hoover-up money. There is one small problem, it doesn’t work. I stuck with it for months on end, even pulled out the traditional ‘bad habit’ stops of increasing my stakes.

In short 3/1 morning-line horses do not drift out to 5/1 unless they are dead and buried. 3/1 shots that go off at 2/1, on the other hand, they do win and win regularly.

So now, in 2015, my days involve utilising all the data I collected during this costly experiment which only clarified something stalwarts long ago concluded: Money is golden in horseracing.

True, a horse that has been smashed into short-priced favouritism from an opening show is not necessarily going to win. The stats simply state the odds of it winning were greater than the probability of that successful outcome hours before the start of the race.

If anyone could suggest how these market trends can be used to make money I’d very much appreciate their input.

Today’s Tennis Betting Tips for the French Open 2015

March is a relatively quiet month for both the ATP and WTA tours, with only the opening round of the Davis Cup and events in Indian Wells and Miami to keep tennis fans entertained. Inexorably then, some fans’ minds will start to wander towards the next grand slam on the calendar at Roland Garros in May.

With that in mind, it seems a reasonable time to start making a few ATP & WTA tennis predictions ahead of the French Open and to use them to offer today’s tennis betting tips for the Roland Garros event. If you like reading daily tennis previews for all levels of tennis events then Stevegtennis.com has some good ones here.

Plenty can obviously happen between now and the end of May, but as things stand today’s tennis betting tips for the French Open might just help you make a tidy profit by the time that next grand slam does arrive.
The Men’s Draw

As Roland Garros gets nearer you can get real time free betting tips at Matchstat.com here.

The 2015 edition of the French Open is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing for ten years or more, thanks largely to the inconsistent form and fitness struggles of Rafa Nadal. The Spaniard has won the Roland Garros title an incredible nine times of the last ten but with both his form and fitness doubtful this time around, the result of the 2015 tournament is far more unpredictable.

Nadal could of course capture yet another title in Paris and it would be a compelling story if he does after his recent struggles, but today’s tennis betting tips aren’t going to include backing the Spaniard to take a tenth French Open crown. Who then, are we going to tip when it comes to the men’s draw for the French Open?

With Nadal looking likely to be less of a force at Roland Garros this time around, thoughts automatically switch toward Roger Federer, Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic. Of those three, Djokovic makes the most appeal given the relative weakness of Federer and Murrays’ games on clay compared to other surfaces. The Serb too will undoubtedly be very motivated to complete his career grand slam but 2015 could just be the year for a surprise winner in Paris and the first of today’s tennis betting tips is going to be to back 2013 runner-up David Ferrer to go one better this time around.

The Women’s Draw

In the modern era of women’s tennis it has basically only been the clay of Roland Garros that has blunted Serena Williams’ dominance over the rest of the WTA tour, and that makes the French Open arguably the most interesting of all the slams in the women’s game.

At the age of 33 and on her least favoured surface, Serena will likely still be the bookies favourite come May but offers no value for punters taking all of that into account. Instead then, those looking for a good value bet on the French Open would do well to look elsewhere and there are a number of options.

Maria Sharapova has won two of the last three editions of the tournament and reached the final in the one year where she failed to take the title, making her the more tempting option for punters who like to back a short-priced competitor. If like many people however, you prefer to find value lower down the market, then the last of today’s tennis betting tips for the French Open will appeal to you.

Italian number one Sara Errani has reached at least the quarter finals at Roland Garros in the last three editions of the event and made it all the way to the final in 2012, showing her affinity for the tournament. That, combined with the fact that she is on the cusp of re-entering the world’s top ten, makes her current antepost odds of 50/1 with some bookmakers look very tempting indeed for an each-way punt.